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25.09.2008 - MDM Comment: RUB stronger again

The ruble has this morning gained against the bi-currency basket for the third consecutive day, sending the value of the basket down from RUB30.40 (CBR's "offer" level or upper bound of the corridor) to RUB30.20. We see a combination of factors behind the current ruble strength:

- The sizeable portion of money that wanted to leave the ruble territory has already left
- Russian exporters (mostly paid in dollars) are not holding their dollars, but are instead selling them immediately because of dollar weakness in the global FX market
- Local banks may be buying rubles in order to get ready for end-of-month corporate tax payments
- A buildup in speculative long ruble positions cannot be ruled out

Whatever the exact combination and weighting of reasons is, we believe this will have a positive impact on the liquidity of the local banking system as well as the appeal of local bonds. Ruble strength also of course reduces the risk of depletion of the Central Bank’s reserves.

25.09.2008 11:44
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